May 15, 2024 • 1hr 9min

BTC182: Bitcoin Mastermind 2Q 2024 (Bitcoin Podcast)

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

This episode features a quarterly mastermind discussion with Jeff Ross, American HODL, and attorney Joe Carlasare covering recent developments in Bitcoin and macroeconomics. The conversation touches on regulatory issues, monetary policy, market cycles, and implications for Bitcoin investors.

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Key Takeaways

The Ethereum ETF approval is likely delayed until 2025 due to regulatory concerns and ongoing litigation with Coinbase
There is tension between different regulatory bodies (SEC, CFTC, FinCEN) over jurisdiction of cryptocurrencies
Japan's currency intervention and FX swap lines with the US are attempts to manage the yen's decline in an orderly fashion
Global M2 money supply growth has slowed but is expected to gradually increase, potentially benefiting Bitcoin
The Bitcoin halving and upcoming US election could be catalysts for the next bull market cycle
Roger Ver is facing serious tax fraud charges that could result in significant jail time
Bitcoiners should be cautious about tax compliance and security practices to avoid regulatory scrutiny

Introduction

This episode features a quarterly mastermind discussion with Jeff Ross, American HODL, and attorney Joe Carlasare covering recent developments in Bitcoin and macroeconomics. The conversation touches on regulatory issues, monetary policy, market cycles, and implications for Bitcoin investors.

Topics Discussed

Ethereum ETF Delay (00:58)

The discussion begins with news that Grayscale has pulled its Ethereum ETF application. Joe Carlasare explains:

An Ethereum ETF approval is likely inevitable but now looks delayed to 2025
The rationale used to approve Bitcoin ETFs should apply to Ethereum as well
Grayscale is likely "playing nice" with regulators by voluntarily withdrawing for now
Ongoing litigation with Coinbase may be a factor in the SEC's hesitancy

"I think it's inevitable. It's just a question of when it comes. It's probably more looking like 2025 rather than 2024," says Carlasare on the Ethereum ETF timeline.

Regulatory Turf Wars (07:53)

The conversation shifts to tensions between different regulatory bodies:

There is a "turf war" between agencies like the SEC, CFTC and FinCEN over crypto jurisdiction
Agencies are fighting for funding and to expand their authority over the growing crypto industry
This regulatory competition is likely to intensify as crypto issues come to the forefront

"All these government agencies, as is typical, they're fighting for funding, they're fighting to expand their jurisdiction," explains Carlasare.

Coinbase Litigation (04:38)

Joe Carlasare provides an update on the SEC's lawsuit against Coinbase:

A recent court decision rejected arguments that secondary market crypto transactions are not securities
This conflicts with the logic of the Ripple case decision on secondary sales
It creates more legal uncertainty that will likely take years to fully resolve
This ongoing litigation is a headwind for the crypto market

"This is not going to be resolved anytime soon. This is going to be a long, protracted litigation," predicts Carlasare.

Japan FX Intervention (34:55)

The group discusses Japan's recent currency market intervention:

Japan has opened FX swap lines with the US to support the yen
This allows Japan to defend its currency without selling US Treasuries
The goal is to weaken the yen in a slow, orderly manner
Japan has ample reserves to manage this process

"The notion that this is going to all blow up and be some sort of huge credit event, I think that's a lot of panic over nothing," says Carlasare.

Global M2 and Market Outlook (44:08)

Jeff Ross provides his perspective on monetary policy and markets:

Global M2 money supply growth has slowed but is likely to gradually increase
This should support risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin
We're not heading for 1970s-style inflation or a recession
Markets may remain choppy in the near-term before trending higher

"I think at some point people are going to realize, hey, you know what, the economy actually isn't that bad and banks are actually going to start lending again," predicts Ross.

Bitcoin Market Cycle (57:01)

The group discusses their outlook for Bitcoin:

The current cycle is similar to 2016, with a period of consolidation after initial ETF hype
The halving and US election could be catalysts for the next bull run
Jeff Ross predicts Bitcoin will be "well above $100,000" by May 2025
Now is a good opportunity to accumulate before the next move higher

"This is your last chance. And I'm telling people just to guess, this is not individual investment advice. This is your chance to get on before the rocket takes off," says Ross.

Roger Ver Tax Case (59:26)

The conversation turns to Roger Ver's $50 million tax fraud case:

Ver is facing 8 counts of tax fraud related to unreported Bitcoin holdings
Emails show he ignored legal advice and manipulated documents
He could face over 10 years in prison if convicted
This may be a strategic case for the government to make an example of a high-profile Bitcoiner

"When they charge you with fraud, they really, more often than not, I'd say in almost every case I've ever seen, they have the goods," explains Carlasare.

Bitcoin Security and Compliance (1:05:46)

The group discusses security and regulatory risks for Bitcoin holders:

Public Bitcoiners may face increased regulatory scrutiny
Even cold storage can be seen as a "red flag" by auditors
Social engineering scams targeting exchange accounts are a major threat
Self-custody and tax compliance are important for risk management

"Don't let something like that scare you into leaving your coins exactly on an exchange, because I don't know if everybody heard this interview, but my friend John Carvalho, who's a well known Bitcoin OG, he caught one of these guys, these social engineering scammers, on the phone yesterday," warns American HODL.

Conclusion

The conversation concludes with the panelists emphasizing the importance of steady Bitcoin accumulation during market lulls. They advise listeners to focus on self-custody, security best practices, and tax compliance. Despite regulatory headwinds, the group remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects as adoption increases globally.

Joe Carlasare sums up the opportunity: "I think you're going to be looking back a few years from now...you're going to say wow, I had months and months to accumulate in the sixties or $50,000 area of bitcoin. What was I doing not selling my chairs so to speak."