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May 8, 2024 • 1hr 53min
#736: A Strategic Deep Dive on TikTok, The Boiling Moat of Taiwan, and China’s Next-Gen Statecraft — Matt Pottinger, Former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor
The Tim Ferriss Show
Matt Pottinger is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and chairman of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He served as U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor from 2019-2021 after a career as a journalist in China and as a U.S. Marine. Pottinger's new book is "The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan."
#736: A Strategic Deep Dive on TikTok, The Boiling Moat of Taiwan, and China’s Next-Gen Statecraft — Matt Pottinger, Former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor
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Key Takeaways
- Matt Pottinger has deep expertise on China and Taiwan from his time as a journalist, Marine, and senior U.S. national security official
- TikTok is a powerful propaganda tool for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to sow chaos and undermine democracy in the West
- Taiwan is strategically, ideologically, and economically critical for the U.S. and its allies - its fall would have devastating global consequences
- Deterring China from attacking Taiwan requires a multi-faceted approach of military capability, diplomatic resolve, and cultivating social depth/resilience in Taiwan
- The U.S. must be more rhetorically and strategically assertive in drawing distinctions between democratic and authoritarian systems
Introduction
Matt Pottinger is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and chairman of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He served as U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor from 2019-2021 after a career as a journalist in China and as a U.S. Marine. Pottinger's new book is "The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan."
Pottinger and host Tim Ferriss discuss Pottinger's background studying and working in China, the threat posed by TikTok as a CCP propaganda tool, the strategic importance of Taiwan, and what the U.S. must do to effectively deter Chinese aggression against the island democracy.
Topics Discussed
Language Learning & China Expertise (8:20)
Pottinger's interest in China began accidentally in high school when he switched from Spanish to Chinese language classes. He went on to study classical Chinese at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and with renowned scholar Perry Link at Princeton.
Pottinger emphasizes the importance of learning languages through full sentence repetition and immersion, rather than just vocabulary and grammar. This approach allowed him to become fluent in Chinese and pick up Japanese more quickly later on.
TikTok as a CCP Propaganda Tool (17:17)
- TikTok is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party and used to spread anti-American, anti-democratic propaganda
- The app's algorithms are manipulated to amplify content that embarrasses or discredits the U.S. and its allies, while suppressing content critical of China
- TikTok masquerades as a foreign company but is actually fully controlled by ByteDance, whose top editors are CCP officials
- The CCP views TikTok and other social media platforms as a "smokeless battlefield for ideological persuasion and destruction"
The Significance of Taiwan (40:23)
- Taiwan's geographic position makes it a "lynchpin" of the "first island chain" that blocks China's military expansion into the Pacific
- Taiwan is a thriving democracy that ranks higher than the U.S. on many democratic metrics - its fall would be a devastating blow
- Taiwan produces 92% of the world's advanced semiconductors, making it economically critical globally
- If China were to blockade or coercively annex Taiwan, it would give them immense leverage over U.S. allies like Japan and the Philippines
Deterring Chinese Aggression Against Taiwan (52:07)
- Deterrence requires a combination of military capability, diplomatic resolve, and cultivating social depth/resilience in Taiwan
- Taiwan must be equipped with asymmetric defensive capabilities like anti-ship missiles, drones, and sea mines to make an invasion prohibitively costly
- Taiwan also needs to develop a "culture of service" and civilian emergency response capabilities modeled on countries like Israel and Finland
- The U.S. must be willing to impose significant economic costs on China, such as for its support of Iran and Russia, to deter aggression
- There is a narrow window of time, likely tied to Xi Jinping's lifespan, in which China may attempt to forcibly unify Taiwan
The Need for Rhetorical Clarity (33:11)
- The U.S. must be more willing to candidly contrast its democratic system with China's authoritarian one
- Pottinger cites Reagan's "evil empire" speech as an example of embracing moral clarity in foreign policy
- The U.S. should leverage its democratic values and institutions as a source of strength, rather than being defensive about its flaws
Pottinger's Personal Journey (1:33:21)
- Pottinger spent his 20s as a journalist in China, but was deeply affected by the 9/11 attacks and decided to join the Marine Corps in his 30s
- His Marine training instilled in him a sense of responsibility for the lives of his subordinates and the importance of moral courage
- Pottinger believes public service, whether in the military or other fields, can be incredibly rewarding and impactful
Conclusion
Matt Pottinger's expertise on China and Taiwan, forged through his diverse career experiences, provides critical insights for U.S. policymakers and the public. His warnings about the threat posed by TikTok and the urgency of deterring Chinese aggression against Taiwan underscore the high stakes involved.
Pottinger advocates a multi-faceted approach of military capability, diplomatic resolve, and cultivating social resilience in Taiwan to counter China's ambitions. He also emphasizes the importance of the U.S. embracing its democratic values and institutions as a source of strength, rather than being defensive about its flaws.
Pottinger's personal journey from journalist to Marine officer further highlights the critical role of public service in safeguarding American interests and ideals. His insights provide a sobering but necessary call to action for the U.S. to take a more assertive and principled stance in the face of an increasingly aggressive China.