August 16, 2024 • 3hr 37min
#2190 - Peter Thiel
The Joe Rogan Experience
Key Takeaways
- Peter Thiel believes there has been limited technological progress in the physical world ("world of atoms") over the past 50 years, with most innovation happening in the digital realm ("world of bits")
- Thiel sees passing the Turing test as a major AI milestone that is more significant than achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI)
- On UFOs/UAPs, Thiel is skeptical of alien visitation theories and thinks most sightings are likely secret government technology programs
- Thiel believes global birth rate declines are driven more by social/cultural factors than environmental toxins, and may be very difficult to reverse once the trend sets in
- On the future of AI, Thiel thinks the dystopian narratives are currently winning the argument and we may see heavy regulation that slows progress
- Thiel is skeptical that current AI systems will smoothly evolve into benevolent superintelligence, and thinks military/geopolitical competition may drive development in concerning directions
Introduction
Peter Thiel is an entrepreneur, venture capitalist and author known for co-founding PayPal and Palantir Technologies. He was an early investor in Facebook and has been an influential figure in Silicon Valley for decades. In this wide-ranging conversation with Joe Rogan, Thiel shares his perspectives on technology, artificial intelligence, UFOs, geopolitics, and the future of humanity.
Topics Discussed
Technological Progress and Stagnation (35:06)
Thiel argues that technological progress over the past 50 years has been largely limited to the digital realm, with much less innovation happening in the physical world:
- There has been "very limited progress in the world of atoms, in the world of physical things" since the 1970s
- Most progress has been in the "world of bits" - computers, internet, mobile, AI
- We're literally moving slower than 50 years ago due to traffic, airport security, etc.
- Fields like mechanical engineering, chemical engineering, nuclear engineering have been largely stagnant
Thiel believes this stagnation is partly due to increased regulation and risk aversion: "Maybe a stagnant world in which the physicists don't get to do anything and they have to putter around with DEI, and you're not, but you don't build weapons that blow up the world anymore. Is that a feature or bug?"
Artificial Intelligence and the Turing Test (21:10)
On recent AI progress, Thiel sees passing the Turing test as a major milestone:
- ChatGPT essentially passes the Turing test, fooling average humans
- This was the "holy grail" of AI research for 60 years
- Passing the Turing test is more significant than achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI)
- It's a complement or substitute to humans, while AGI/superintelligence would be competition for God
Thiel compares the current AI moment to the internet in 1999: "It's clear the Internet's going to be big and get a lot bigger and it's going to dominate the economy, it's going to rearrange the society in the 21st century. And then at the same time, it was a complete bubble and people had no idea how the business models worked."
UFOs and Secret Technology (36:59)
On UFOs/UAPs, Thiel is skeptical of alien visitation theories:
- Many sightings are likely secret government technology programs
- The U.S. may have developed advanced propulsion systems beyond public knowledge
- Thiel finds alien visitation theories "strangely unmotivating" despite their plausibility
- The ephemeral nature of UFO evidence makes it an unproductive field of study
Thiel suggests: "If you have faster than light travel, if you have warp drive, which is probably what you really need to cover interstellar distances, what that means for military technology is that you can send weapons at warp speed and they will hit you before you see them coming. And there is no defense against a warp speed weapon."
Global Birth Rate Declines (3:15:55)
Thiel sees declining birth rates as driven more by social/cultural factors than environmental toxins:
- Birth rates are below replacement level across very different societies/cultures
- People have kids if others around them are having kids - it's driven by imitation
- Once birth rates flip to decline, it changes politics/incentives in ways that are hard to reverse
- Some demographers argue the decline could continue indefinitely, potentially leading to extinction
Thiel notes: "Once you flip it, you change the whole society and it actually stays flipped. And it's very, very hard to undo."
The Future of AI Development (3:05:22)
On the trajectory of AI development, Thiel sees several possibilities:
- The utopian AI narratives from Silicon Valley may be overly optimistic
- Dystopian/alarmist AI narratives are currently "winning the arguments"
- We may see heavy regulation that significantly slows AI progress
- Military/geopolitical competition with China could drive development in concerning directions
Thiel suggests: "My read on the cultural social vibe is that the scary dystopian AI narrative is way more compelling...my model is going to be surprisingly powerful. It's going to be outlawed. It's going to be regulated as we have outlawed so many other vectors of innovation."
Superintelligent AI and Human Obsolescence (2:56:49)
Thiel is skeptical of smooth evolution to benevolent superintelligent AI:
- No clear evolutionary path to superintelligent, benevolent beings
- Military/geopolitical pressures may drive AI in dangerous directions
- Difficult to create AI systems that are truly altruistic and not self-interested
On the idea of AI surpassing and replacing humans, Thiel says: "I don't like that...I think artificial life, but then I hear that is we're going to be extinct. I don't like that."
The Epstein Scandal (1:50:59)
Thiel shares his perspective on the Jeffrey Epstein scandal:
- Met Epstein a few times after being introduced by Reid Hoffman in 2014
- Epstein was described as "one of the smartest tax people in the world"
- Believes the underage s*x trafficking aspect may be a "limited hangout" distracting from other questions
- Wonders what U.S. intelligence agencies Epstein may have been working with
Thiel suggests: "If it was an intelligence operation, the question we should be asking is, what part of the US intelligence system was he working for?"
Bill Gates and Philanthropy (2:02:42)
On Bill Gates' philanthropy efforts, Thiel is skeptical:
- Gates' philanthropy may be partly motivated by controlling his divorce settlement
- Left-wing philanthropy can be a form of whitewashing past behavior
- The European view of large-scale philanthropy is more skeptical than the American view
Thiel notes: "There's something about the virtue signaling, and what does it mean? And I always think this is sort of a Europe America versus Europe difference, where in America, we're told that philanthropy is something a good person does...And then I think sort of the European intuition on it is something like, wow, that's only something a very evil person does."
Conclusion
This wide-ranging conversation between Joe Rogan and Peter Thiel covered many complex topics related to technology, artificial intelligence, geopolitics, and the future of humanity. Thiel offered a somewhat pessimistic view on technological progress outside the digital realm, and expressed skepticism about utopian AI narratives. He sees major challenges ahead related to AI development, declining birth rates, and geopolitical competition. While speculative, Thiel's perspectives offer much food for thought on some of the most pressing issues facing society in the coming decades.
