July 10, 2024 • 2hr 55min

#2174 - Annie Jacobsen

The Joe Rogan Experience

Annie Jacobsen is a Pulitzer Prize finalist, investigative journalist, and bestselling author. Her latest book, "Nuclear War: A Scenario," explores the potential devastating consequences of nuclear war. In this wide-ranging 3-hour conversation, Jacobsen and Joe Rogan discuss the current nuclear threat, advances in AI and technology, government secrecy and censorship, and philosophical questions about human nature and the future of humanity.

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Key Takeaways

Annie Jacobsen's new book "Nuclear War: A Scenario" explores the potential devastating consequences of nuclear war, with 5 billion people dead within 72 minutes in her scenario
There are currently 1,770 nuclear weapons on ready-for-launch status that can be launched in as little as 60 seconds
The U.S. only has 44 interceptor missiles to defend against incoming nuclear attacks, with a 50% success rate, making defense essentially impossible
Nuclear war could lead to nuclear winter lasting 7-10 years, devastating agriculture and forcing humanity back to a hunter-gatherer state
AI and technology are advancing rapidly, with potential to solve many human problems but also risks if used for warfare
Rogan believes ideas are a "life form" that propagate through humans to manifest in the physical world as technology
There are concerns about government and corporate control/censorship of information, especially on social media platforms
Rogan is ultimately hopeful about the future of technology and AI, believing it may overcome human flaws in leadership and decision-making

Introduction

Annie Jacobsen is a Pulitzer Prize finalist, investigative journalist, and bestselling author. Her latest book, "Nuclear War: A Scenario," explores the potential devastating consequences of nuclear war. In this wide-ranging 3-hour conversation, Jacobsen and Joe Rogan discuss the current nuclear threat, advances in AI and technology, government secrecy and censorship, and philosophical questions about human nature and the future of humanity.

Topics Discussed

Nuclear War Scenario and Current Nuclear Threats (0:26)

Jacobsen outlines the scenario from her book where nuclear war leads to 5 billion deaths within 72 minutes. She explains there are currently 1,770 U.S. nuclear weapons on ready-for-launch status that can be launched in as little as 60 seconds. Key points:

The U.S. only has 44 interceptor missiles to defend against incoming nuclear attacks, with a 50% success rate
Nuclear war could lead to nuclear winter lasting 7-10 years, devastating agriculture
"We have a total of 12,200 and some odd nuclear weapons." - Annie Jacobsen

Jacobsen argues there is a solution - disarmament - but progress has stalled in recent years as leaders threaten to pull out of treaties. She emphasizes the need for communication between nuclear powers to reduce risks.

Advances in AI and Technology (1:16:41)

The conversation shifts to rapid advances in AI and technology. Key points:

AI may be smarter than all humans combined within 4 years
AI is already superior at diagnosing diseases and may solve many human problems
Concerns about AI being used for warfare and autonomous weapons
Rogan believes AI may ultimately be better at governing than humans, who are prone to corruption and flaws

"I wonder if the only thing that can actually govern society fairly and accurately is an artificial intelligence." - Joe Rogan

Ideas as a "Life Form" (1:19:11)

Rogan presents his theory that ideas are a form of life that propagate through humans to manifest in the physical world as technology:

Every human-created object started as an idea
Ideas combine with currently available ideas to improve and manifest physically
Humans may be an "electronic caterpillar" creating a cocoon that will birth an "electronic butterfly"

"I think we are an electronic caterpillar making a cocoon, and we don't even know why. We are just constantly building." - Joe Rogan

Government Secrecy and Censorship (2:18:25)

Jacobsen and Rogan discuss government secrecy, including unreleased JFK assassination files. They express concern about recent Supreme Court rulings allowing government agencies to pressure social media companies to remove content:

Rogan argues this enables control of narratives and suppression of true information
Points to Twitter files revealing FBI involvement in suppressing Hunter Biden laptop story
Emphasizes need for open debate and examination of information to determine truth

"You have to be really sure it's misinformation and you should tell us how you know it's misinformation. And you should allow people to examine that information and come to the same or different conclusions and debate those people. Let's find out what's real." - Joe Rogan

Human Nature and Leadership (2:42:30)

Jacobsen asks why there isn't more movement toward cooperation rather than conflict. Rogan argues:

Most individuals want peace but tribalism and poor leadership lead to conflict
Human nature is prone to tribalism and "us vs them" thinking
AI may eventually overcome human flaws in decision-making and leadership

"I don't know if it's possible to have a good leader. I don't know if those kind of humans are real." - Joe Rogan

Optimism About the Future (2:46:05)

Despite concerns, Rogan expresses ultimate optimism about the future:

Society is generally safer and more advanced than in the past
Technology will likely continue to improve quality of life
AI and technology may solve many current human problems

"I think things always generally move in a very good direction because that's what's better for everybody." - Joe Rogan

Conclusion

This wide-ranging conversation covered the serious threat of nuclear war, rapid advances in AI and technology, government secrecy and censorship, and philosophical questions about human nature and leadership. While acknowledging serious risks and challenges, Rogan ultimately expresses optimism that technology and AI may help overcome human flaws and improve society. However, Jacobsen emphasizes the need to address the nuclear threat, as one mistake could end human civilization before we realize the potential benefits of advancing technology.