October 3, 2024 • 1hr 14min
#846 - Nate Silver - How Will The 2024 Election Play Out?
Modern Wisdom
Key Takeaways
- The 2024 US presidential election is currently looking like a 50-50 toss-up between Trump and Harris according to Nate Silver's models
- Key battleground issues are abortion for Democrats and immigration for Republicans
- Polling has become more challenging as fewer people respond to surveys, requiring more sophisticated modeling
- There is a risk of polling error in either direction, but less likely this year since polls are showing a close race
- The electoral college gives Republicans an advantage - Democrats need to win the popular vote by 2-3 points to be favored
- Nevada has become a key swing state due to its diverse working class population in the casino/hospitality industry
- A viable third party candidate is unlikely as the two major parties are adept at co-opting popular positions
- Social acceptability of supporting Trump has expanded somewhat since previous elections
- Silver identifies two key groups shaping American culture - the "village" (East Coast establishment) and the "river" (risk-taking innovators)
- High-risk takers like Sam Bankman-Fried can produce breakthroughs but also catastrophic failures if unchecked
- Managing stress and staying "cool under pressure" is crucial for high-stakes decision making
Introduction
Nate Silver is a renowned statistician, writer, and founder of FiveThirtyEight known for his sophisticated polling analysis and election forecasting. In this wide-ranging conversation, Silver discusses the current state of the 2024 US presidential race, the challenges of polling in the modern era, key battleground issues and states, and broader cultural trends shaping American politics and society. He also shares insights from his new book on high-risk takers in fields like finance, tech, and gambling.
Topics Discussed
Current State of the 2024 Presidential Race (4:28)
Silver describes the current period as "insane" in terms of the compressed timeline of major political events over the summer, including Biden dropping out, the assassination attempt on Trump, and the party conventions. He notes this level of intensity may be unprecedented in American political history.
According to Silver's latest modeling, the 2024 race is currently looking like a 50-50 toss-up between Trump and Harris. He explains:
- Democrats are favored to win the popular vote, as they usually do
- The electoral college gives Republicans an advantage - Democrats need to win the popular vote by 2-3 points to be favored
- Key battleground states remain Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina
"From my naive perspective, you might say, okay, well, the odds are probably about 50-50 again. And that's probably what we're getting."
Challenges of Modern Polling (10:46)
Silver discusses how polling has become more challenging in recent years:
- Fewer people respond to phone surveys, especially on landlines
- Online polling methods are still being refined
- Those who do respond to polls tend to be more politically engaged and educated, skewing Democratic
- Pollsters have to make complex adjustments to account for these biases
He notes there is a risk of polling error in either direction, but it may be less likely this year since polls are showing a close race rather than a clear favorite.
Key Battleground Issues (13:57)
Silver identifies the most important issues for each party:
- Democrats: Abortion rights, following the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade
- Republicans: Immigration and border security
He notes these issues are particularly motivating for each party's base and key swing voters.
Campaign Strategies and Media Appearances (15:26)
Silver critiques the Harris campaign's limited media strategy, arguing they are getting "bad advice" by being overly cautious about public appearances. He suggests this stems from "PTSD" from Biden's gaffes, but is a mistake for Harris who needs to expand her support.
In contrast, Trump has been doing extensive podcast and long-form interview appearances. Silver believes Harris is missing opportunities to reach key demographics like young women.
Impact of Mainstream Media Bias (17:02)
Silver acknowledges mainstream media tends to have a center-left bias, especially on cultural issues. However, he argues this doesn't necessarily help Democrats as much as some think:
- Counterweights exist in conservative media like Fox News
- Many Republicans distrust mainstream media, reducing its influence
- Social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook have shifted rightward
He notes: "I'm not sure it helps Democrats to have the media. I mean, I don't think it's in their pocket either. I think it's complicated."
Debates and Voter Persuasion (19:18)
Silver explains that while debates don't tend to dramatically shift polls, even small movements can be significant in a close election:
- Harris gained about 1 point after her first debate performance
- With only 3-4% of voters truly undecided, small shifts matter
- The last two elections came down to tens of thousands of votes in key states
He notes debates have less impact than in the past because the election process is so long and voters are very familiar with the candidates already.
Key Swing States and Demographic Shifts (33:50)
Silver highlights some interesting demographic and geographic trends:
- Nevada has become a key swing state due to its diverse working class population in casinos/hospitality
- Some "racial depolarization" is occurring, with Democrats gaining with white voters while losing ground with voters of color, especially younger cohorts
- This benefits Democrats in whiter Midwest states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan
- But makes traditionally diverse swing states like Arizona and North Carolina more challenging
Viability of Third Party Candidates (37:14)
Silver argues a viable third party presidential candidate is unlikely because:
- The two major parties are adept at co-opting popular positions from outsiders
- He cites Trump in 2016 and Bernie Sanders as examples of "third party-like" candidates who worked within the system
- The parties shift to absorb new coalitions rather than allowing a true third option to emerge
Social Acceptability of Supporting Trump (40:55)
Silver notes the social acceptability of openly supporting Trump has expanded somewhat since previous elections:
- More explicit Trump support now in Silicon Valley and Wall Street
- Growing support among some demographics like younger Black and Hispanic men
- Still strong geographic divides in openly displaying support (e.g. yard signs)
The "Village" vs. "River" in American Culture (42:15)
Silver outlines his concept of two key groups shaping American culture:
- The Village: East Coast establishment (academia, media, government). Politically progressive, collective-oriented, focused on social cohesion.
- The River: Risk-taking innovators (Silicon Valley, Wall Street, casinos). Highly competitive, analytics-driven, focused on individual success.
He argues the "River" mindset is becoming more dominant as tech/finance grow in economic importance, but both groups have strengths and weaknesses.
High-Risk Takers and Sam Bankman-Fried (49:32)
Silver shares insights from his interactions with Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and lessons about high-risk takers:
- SBF had an extremely high risk tolerance, believing you should be willing to "risk ruining your life"
- He overestimated his abilities and charm, rejecting plea deals
- Many enablers failed to do proper due diligence, creating a "bystander effect"
- High-risk takers can produce breakthroughs but also catastrophic failures if unchecked
Psychology of Crypto Investors (53:58)
Silver discusses factors that made people prone to crypto/NFT speculation:
- Boredom and anxiety during the pandemic
- Government stimulus providing excess cash
- Exciting technology combined with get-rich-quick allure
- Social media amplifying trends and FOMO
Managing Stress in High-Stakes Situations (1:01:13)
Silver emphasizes the importance of staying "cool under pressure" in high-stakes decision making:
- Recognize that physical stress responses are normal and not necessarily bad
- Avoid freezing up - trust training and experience
- Heightened arousal can improve performance and information processing
- Practice dealing with pressure situations to improve over time
Personal Traits and Habits (1:11:14)
Silver shares some personal insights on productivity and work habits:
- Values intense, focused work over long hours
- Tries to limit scheduled commitments to preserve maker's schedule
- Willing to invest in convenience/comfort to optimize productivity
- Batches certain tasks (like shopping) to be more efficient
Conclusion
This wide-ranging conversation with Nate Silver provides valuable insights into the current state of American politics, the challenges of modern polling and forecasting, and broader cultural trends shaping society. Silver's analytical approach and willingness to acknowledge uncertainty offer a refreshing perspective on a polarized political landscape. His observations on high-risk takers and decision making under pressure also have relevance beyond politics to fields like business, finance, and technology. As the 2024 election approaches, Silver's data-driven analysis will continue to be a crucial resource for understanding this complex and consequential race.