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September 5, 2024 • 1hr 35min
#834 - Lyman Stone - Why Is Everyone Having Fewer Children?
Modern Wisdom
In this episode of Modern Wisdom, host Chris Williamson interviews demographer and researcher Lyman Stone about declining fertility rates in developed countries. They discuss the historical context of fertility, reasons for recent declines, and potential implications for the future.
Lyman Stone is the Director of Research at the Institute for Family Studies and brings extensive knowledge on demographic trends and their societal impacts. The conversation explores the complex factors influencing fertility decisions and challenges some common assumptions about what drives birth rates.
#834 - Lyman Stone - Why Is Everyone Having Fewer Children?
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Key Takeaways
- Fertility rates have declined significantly in the US and other developed countries over the past few decades, from about 2.1 children per woman in 2007 to 1.6 today
- Historically, humans had many more children but high mortality rates meant fewer survived to adulthood. Actual surviving fertility rates were lower than total births
- The decline in fertility is not primarily due to economic factors. When people suddenly become wealthier (e.g. lottery winners), they tend to have more children, not fewer
- Cultural factors and changing expectations around parenting play a major role in declining fertility rates
- There is a significant "fertility gap" between how many children people say they ideally want (2.3 on average) and how many they actually have (1.6)
- Depression and anxiety are strongly correlated with lower fertility rates and desire for children
- Political affiliation is correlated with fertility rates, with conservatives/Republicans having more children on average than liberals/Democrats
- Declining marriage rates are a key factor in overall fertility decline
- Environmental factors like microplastics likely have minimal impact on fertility rates compared to social/cultural factors
- Future fertility rates will likely continue declining before potentially stabilizing between 0.4-1.3 children per woman
Introduction
In this episode of Modern Wisdom, host Chris Williamson interviews demographer and researcher Lyman Stone about declining fertility rates in developed countries. They discuss the historical context of fertility, reasons for recent declines, and potential implications for the future.
Lyman Stone is the Director of Research at the Institute for Family Studies and brings extensive knowledge on demographic trends and their societal impacts. The conversation explores the complex factors influencing fertility decisions and challenges some common assumptions about what drives birth rates.
Topics Discussed
Historical Context of Fertility Rates (4:49)
Lyman provides historical context on fertility rates:
- In 1800, the US had about 6 children per woman on average
- However, high mortality rates meant many women and children did not survive
- Actual surviving fertility was likely 2.7-4 children per woman
- Humans have adapted to overcome adversity and continue reproducing
"We, as a species, have a variety of adaptations that help us continue to have children despite all these things," explains Lyman.
Recent Fertility Trends (4:03)
The discussion turns to more recent fertility trends:
- US fertility rate has declined from 2.1 children per woman in 2007 to 1.6 today
- This represents about "half a child missing" for every woman compared to 2007 levels
- Similar declines are occurring in most developed countries
Lyman notes this decline is not primarily due to economic factors, as is often assumed.
Economic Factors and Fertility (13:36)
Contrary to popular belief, increased wealth does not necessarily lead to lower fertility:
- Studies of lottery winners show they tend to have more children, not fewer, after winning
- When countries suddenly become wealthier (e.g. oil discoveries), fertility rates often increase
- The relationship between income and fertility is complex and context-dependent
"If you give people more money, it does tend to be the case that they have a bit more [children]," Lyman explains.
Cultural Factors and Changing Expectations (22:25)
Lyman argues that cultural shifts and changing expectations around parenting play a major role in fertility decline:
- Use of the word "parenting" in English texts has exploded since the 1980s
- There is an increasing preoccupation with parenting strategies and techniques
- Expectations for what parents must provide children have risen dramatically
- This creates a higher perceived "cost" of having children
"We became way more preoccupied with parenting. This idea of parenting, this notion of all the things you have to provide your kids," Lyman notes.
The "Fertility Gap" (41:38)
There is a significant gap between desired and actual fertility:
- Surveys show the average ideal number of children is 2.3
- Intended fertility (realistic expectations) is 1.85-2.1
- Actual fertility is only 1.6 children per woman
- This represents a shortfall of 0.7 children compared to ideals
Lyman emphasizes this gap shows many people are not achieving their desired family size.
Mental Health and Fertility (49:50)
Mental health issues are strongly correlated with lower fertility:
- Depression and anxiety are the strongest predictors of not wanting children
- People who are uncertain or worried about the future have fewer children
- Promoting an overly negative view of the future may inadvertently reduce fertility
"The best predictor of people not wanting kids is depression and anxiety," Lyman states.
Marriage Rates and Fertility (57:32)
Declining marriage rates are a key factor in overall fertility decline:
- Fertility of married people has not declined as much as unmarried people
- People are getting married later or not at all
- If marriage rates were the same as 2007, fertility decline would be much less
- Economic factors, particularly declining incomes of young men, play a role
"Most of the decline is just because of less marriage," Lyman explains.
Environmental Factors and Fertility (1:04:35)
The impact of environmental factors on fertility is likely minimal:
- Claims of declining sperm counts or testosterone levels are largely unsupported
- Microplastics and other pollutants have not been shown to significantly impact fertility
- Hormonal contraception can delay pregnancy after stopping use, but does not appear to cause long-term fertility issues
Lyman argues cultural and social factors are far more influential than environmental ones.
Political Polarization and Fertility (1:13:19)
Political affiliation is correlated with fertility rates:
- Republican elected officials have an average of 2.6 children vs 1.4 for Democrats
- Conservative/religious people tend to have more children on average
- However, the impact on long-term political trends is less than expected due to conversion between parties
"Conservative fertility advantage does drive some electoral advantage, but way less than you would think," Lyman notes.
Future Fertility Projections (1:25:32)
Lyman offers his perspective on future fertility trends:
- Fertility rates will likely continue declining for some time
- They may bottom out somewhere between 0.4 and 1.3 children per woman
- Some social subgroups may find ways to achieve higher fertility
- It's unlikely we'll see rapid genetic selection for higher fertility
He cautions against both overly apocalyptic and overly optimistic projections.
Conclusion
The conversation with Lyman Stone provides a nuanced look at the complex factors driving fertility declines in developed countries. While economic factors play a role, cultural shifts and changing expectations around parenting appear to be major influences. There is a significant gap between desired and actual fertility, suggesting many people are not achieving their ideal family size.
Mental health issues like depression and anxiety are strongly linked to lower fertility, as are declining marriage rates. Environmental factors likely play a minimal role compared to social and cultural influences. Political affiliation correlates with fertility rates, but the long-term impact is less than might be expected.
Looking ahead, fertility rates will likely continue declining before potentially stabilizing at a lower level. This could lead to various social and economic challenges, but Lyman cautions against overly apocalyptic projections. He emphasizes the need to address the obstacles preventing people from having their desired number of children, particularly around housing affordability and economic stability for young adults.
Overall, the episode provides valuable insights into an important demographic trend with far-reaching implications for society. It challenges some common assumptions about fertility while highlighting the complex interplay of factors influencing people's decisions around family formation.