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July 4, 2024 • 1hr 47min
#805 - Gurwinder Bhogal - 14 Uncomfortable Truths About Human Psychology
Modern Wisdom
In this episode of Modern Wisdom, host Chris Williamson interviews Gurwinder Bhogal, a programmer and writer known for his insightful Twitter threads exploring human nature, cognitive biases, mental models, and social dynamics. They discuss a wide range of thought-provoking concepts from Gurwinder's recent mega-thread, examining how these ideas shape our understanding of ourselves and the world around us.
#805 - Gurwinder Bhogal - 14 Uncomfortable Truths About Human Psychology
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Key Takeaways
- The false consensus effect causes us to assume others think and behave like we do. We need to question if our perception is skewed rather than assuming the world is askew.
- Franzen's paradox states that we often spend the most time on decisions that matter least. Using decision-making heuristics and routines can help reduce decision fatigue.
- Enthymemes are arguments where a key premise is unstated but assumed. This rhetorical technique is often used in propaganda to bypass people's defenses.
- Post-journalism has shifted from informing readers to confirming what they already believe, using narrative techniques to engage tribal loyalties.
- Fiction lag describes how people unconsciously adopt traits of characters they identify with in stories. This explains why fiction can shape our identities and worldviews.
- Package deal ethics refers to how people often adopt pre-packaged sets of beliefs from their tribe rather than thinking through issues individually.
- Rothbard's law suggests people often specialize in things they're bad at, assuming their natural talents aren't special. Getting external feedback is important to recognize our strengths.
- Champion bias means we often get better advice on winning from losers who have analyzed their mistakes, rather than winners who may not understand why they succeeded.
- Our personal experiences make up a tiny fraction of what's happened in the world, but shape most of how we think the world works. We need to seek out diverse perspectives.
- The common knowledge effect explains why diverse teams don't necessarily make better decisions, as groups tend to focus on shared information rather than unique expertise.
Introduction
In this episode of Modern Wisdom, host Chris Williamson interviews Gurwinder Bhogal, a programmer and writer known for his insightful Twitter threads exploring human nature, cognitive biases, mental models, and social dynamics. They discuss a wide range of thought-provoking concepts from Gurwinder's recent mega-thread, examining how these ideas shape our understanding of ourselves and the world around us.
Topics Discussed
False Consensus Effect (4:41)
The false consensus effect describes how we tend to assume others think and behave similarly to us. Gurwinder explains:
"We only know ourselves and we kind of, because we're so familiar with ourselves, we tend to use ourselves as the baseline by which we judge everything else."
This can lead to misunderstandings and conflicts when we fail to recognize that others may have very different perspectives and experiences. To counter this bias, we should:
- Question if our perception is skewed rather than assuming the world is askew
- Ask "Is it me or is it them?" when conflicts arise
- Recognize we all see the world through filters of our experiences and personality
Franzen's Paradox (9:29)
Franzen's paradox states that we often spend the most time on decisions that matter least. In our age of abundance and endless choices, decision fatigue is a real problem. Some strategies to combat this include:
- Using decision-making heuristics like "if you can't decide, the answer is no"
- Creating routines to reduce daily decisions (e.g. Steve Jobs wearing the same outfit)
- Setting time limits on research/deliberation
- Recognizing when decisions are trivial and not worth agonizing over
As Gurwinder notes: "The less time you spend making decisions, the more time you spend making decisions work."
The Narcissist's Bedpost (19:40)
This concept suggests counting how often someone uses "I" and "me" when discussing non-personal topics as a gauge of self-centeredness. The discussion explores:
- How social media encourages self-promotion and "me culture"
- The difference between relating personal experiences vs. advertising oneself
- The idea of "inverse charisma" - making others feel interesting rather than trying to be interesting yourself
Enthymeme (25:20)
An enthymeme is an argument where a key premise is unstated but assumed. This rhetorical technique is often used in propaganda to bypass people's defenses. The speakers discuss:
- How politicians use enthymemes as a "Trojan horse" for their agenda
- The power of indirect propaganda vs. direct statements
- How conspiracy theories often rely on unstated assumptions
Post-Journalism (35:08)
Post-journalism describes how the press has shifted from informing readers to confirming what they already believe. Key points include:
- How the internet disrupted traditional media business models
- The shift towards partisan, narrative-driven reporting
- Use of literary devices and storytelling techniques in news
- The challenge of balancing engagement with factual reporting
Fiction Lag (46:21)
Fiction lag, also called experience taking, describes how people unconsciously adopt traits of characters they identify with in stories. The discussion covers:
- How fiction gives us ideas on who to be and how to act
- The power of stories to shape our identities and worldviews
- Why we're vulnerable to getting emotionally invested in fiction
- The potential dangers of modeling behavior on fictional scenarios
Package Deal Ethics (1:14:38)
Package deal ethics refers to how people often adopt pre-packaged sets of beliefs from their tribe rather than thinking through issues individually. The speakers explore:
- Why it's cognitively easier to adopt ready-made belief systems
- How tribal belonging reinforces package deal thinking
- The concept of "unreliable allies" who don't conform to expected belief packages
- The value of thinkers who surprise us with unexpected views
Rothbard's Law (1:22:40)
Rothbard's law suggests people often specialize in things they're bad at, assuming their natural talents aren't special. Key points include:
- The difficulty of recognizing our own talents without external feedback
- How this leads people to focus on improving weaknesses rather than leveraging strengths
- The importance of getting honest feedback from others to identify our talents
- Examples of successful people who initially pursued the wrong specialties
Champion Bias (1:29:20)
Champion bias means we often get better advice on winning from losers who have analyzed their mistakes, rather than winners who may not understand why they succeeded. The discussion covers:
- Why failures tend to be more thoroughly examined than successes
- The value of learning from others' mistakes to avoid pitfalls
- How avoiding critical errors is often more important than maximizing success
- The power of asking "What do most people get wrong about X?"
Anchored to Your Own History Bias (1:35:01)
This bias describes how our personal experiences shape most of how we think the world works, despite being a tiny fraction of what's actually happened. The speakers discuss:
- How different generations form different worldviews based on their economic experiences
- The importance of learning from people with very different life experiences
- Reading works from other time periods to gain perspective on our own era
- Consuming news and media from diverse global sources
Common Knowledge Effect (1:41:39)
The common knowledge effect explains why diverse teams don't necessarily make better decisions, as groups tend to focus on shared information rather than unique expertise. Key points include:
- Research showing diversity has minimal impact on team performance
- How group dynamics lead to decisions based on consensus rather than pooled expertise
- Contexts where diversity can be beneficial (e.g. one-on-one interactions, specific fields like translation)
- Questioning the "diversity is our strength" narrative
Conclusion
This wide-ranging conversation between Chris Williamson and Gurwinder Bhogal explores numerous fascinating concepts related to human cognition, decision-making, and social dynamics. By understanding these mental models and biases, we can become more aware of our own thought processes and blind spots, potentially leading to better decision-making and a more nuanced understanding of the world around us.
The discussion highlights the importance of seeking out diverse perspectives, questioning our assumptions, and being willing to examine our own beliefs critically. It also emphasizes the power of storytelling and narrative in shaping our worldviews, for better or worse.
Ultimately, these insights can help us navigate the complexities of modern life more effectively, whether in personal relationships, professional settings, or engaging with media and information. By recognizing the limitations of our own experiences and actively seeking to broaden our understanding, we can work towards a more balanced and nuanced view of the world.