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July 23, 2024 • 24min
Rapid Response: What the Democrats' campaign changeup means for business, with Axios’ Alex Thompson
Masters of Scale
In this episode of Rapid Response, host Bob Safian interviews Alex Thompson, national political correspondent for Axios, to discuss the sudden and dramatic shift in the 2024 U.S. presidential race. With Joe Biden's withdrawal from the election and the subsequent wave of endorsements for Kamala Harris, Thompson provides insight into how this unexpected turn of events will impact voters, businesses, and the overall political landscape.
Rapid Response: What the Democrats' campaign changeup means for business, with Axios’ Alex Thompson
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Key Takeaways
- Sudden shift in Democratic nomination: Joe Biden has withdrawn from the 2024 presidential race, with Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as the likely Democratic nominee
- Swift party consolidation: Democratic leaders have rapidly coalesced around Harris, endorsing her within 30 hours of Biden's withdrawal
- Campaign challenges: The Harris campaign must quickly transition and rebuild while maintaining existing infrastructure and support
- Biden's reluctance: Biden did not want to exit the race but was pushed out by party leaders concerned about his performance
- Trump's advantage: Donald Trump is in the strongest position of his political career, with a united Republican party behind him
- Voter risk aversion: The traumas of COVID and economic turmoil may make voters wary of dramatic change
- Democratic messaging challenge: Democrats lack a cohesive vision for the future distinct from the current administration
- Business leader influence: Endorsements and financial support from business leaders and billionaires are increasingly important in campaigns
Introduction
In this episode of Rapid Response, host Bob Safian interviews Alex Thompson, national political correspondent for Axios, to discuss the sudden and dramatic shift in the 2024 U.S. presidential race. With Joe Biden's withdrawal from the election and the subsequent wave of endorsements for Kamala Harris, Thompson provides insight into how this unexpected turn of events will impact voters, businesses, and the overall political landscape.
Topics Discussed
Biden's Withdrawal and Democratic Party Response (02:38)
Alex Thompson shares his perspective on Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the presidential race:
- Biden's resilience and belief in his electability made the decision surprising
- There is sadness and anger among long-time Biden supporters
- Questions arise about why Biden's inner circle allowed him to participate in the debate that led to this outcome
"There's a lot of sadness and anger among people that have worked for Joe Biden in the past... I think the anger really comes from a place of how did the people that spent time with him frequently let him get on debate stage?"
Swift Consolidation Around Kamala Harris (05:32)
Thompson discusses the rapid endorsement of Kamala Harris by Democratic leaders:
- The speed of endorsements for Harris was unexpected
- Previously, some Democrats had signaled a preference for competition rather than a coronation
- Biden's endorsement of Harris aligns with his emphasis on loyalty
"It has surprised me how quickly every leader of the Democratic Party has endorsed Kamala Harris."
Campaign Transition Challenges (08:46)
The discussion turns to the practical challenges of transitioning the campaign:
- Flexibility in transferring campaign funds and resources
- The need for Harris to balance changing the campaign while maintaining stability
- Potential risks if Harris struggles in upcoming interviews or appearances
"Kamala Harris is not just going to let the Biden campaign run as it was before, but she also doesn't want to change it enough that it falls to the ground."
Role of Business Leaders in Politics (10:01)
Thompson reflects on the increasing importance of business leader endorsements:
- The post-Citizens United landscape allows wealthy individuals to have outsized influence
- Endorsements from business leaders signal support to influential groups
- Financial contributions from billionaires can significantly impact campaigns
"It is sort of strange. I mean, some of this is you, the post Citizens United world were one billionaire can have such a huge effect."
Democratic Campaign as a "Startup" (12:49)
The conversation explores the analogy of the Democratic campaign as a startup:
- The Biden campaign was "airborne" but struggling before his withdrawal
- Harris must now "fix the campaign while they are airborne and very close to the ground"
- Challenges of rebuilding vs. inheriting existing infrastructure
"They are trying to fix the campaign while they are airborne and very close to the ground. And that is what Kamala Harris and her team is going to try to do."
Biden's Concerns About Harris (19:25)
Thompson discusses Biden's initial reservations about Harris's ability to win:
- Differences in political styles and generations between Biden and Harris
- Concerns about Harris's performance as Vice President
- High staff turnover in Harris's office compared to historical norms
"Of the 47 people that were on her Senate staff disclosure at the beginning of her term, of those 47, only five are so there."
Biden's Forced Exit (21:50)
Thompson clarifies the circumstances of Biden's withdrawal:
- Biden did not voluntarily "bow out gracefully"
- He was pushed out by Democratic Party leaders
- Biden's endorsement of Harris was a separate decision after accepting his exit
"Joe Biden was pushed out of this race by the democratic party and by leaders of Democratic Party."
Current State of the Presidential Race (23:00)
Thompson provides his assessment of the current political landscape:
- Donald Trump is in the strongest position of his political career
- The Republican Party is more united behind Trump than ever before
- Lingering effects of COVID-19 may influence voter risk aversion
- Democrats face challenges in distinguishing Harris from the current administration
"If you are any candidate in this race, you want to be Donald Trump right now. The fact the matter is that this is probably the strongest position Donald Trump has been in in his entire short political career."
Democratic Messaging Challenges (24:23)
The discussion concludes with reflections on the Democrats' messaging strategy:
- Lack of a cohesive vision for the future distinct from the current administration
- Risks of Harris being closely tied to Biden's record
- Need for Democrats to address policy issues beyond Biden's age
"The Democratic Party, especially elites in Democratic Party after the debate, have convinced themselves that all the problems they have are only tied to Joe Biden's age and not to their record."
Conclusion
The sudden shift in the Democratic presidential nomination has created a complex and rapidly evolving political landscape. As Kamala Harris emerges as the likely nominee, she faces significant challenges in transitioning the campaign, distinguishing herself from the current administration, and presenting a compelling vision for the future. Meanwhile, Donald Trump enters the race in a position of strength, with a united Republican party behind him.
The influence of business leaders and wealthy individuals in politics continues to grow, raising questions about the role of money in campaigns. Both parties appear risk-averse, with Republicans looking to the past and Democrats trying to maintain the present, rather than offering bold visions for the future.
As the campaign unfolds, key factors to watch include Harris's ability to rebuild and energize the Democratic campaign, the impact of voter risk aversion stemming from recent national traumas, and how both parties address substantive policy issues beyond personality and age. The outcome of the 2024 presidential election may hinge on which candidate can best capture America's attention and present a compelling case for their vision of the country's future.
