September 18, 2024 • 1hr 8min
Unsolved Mysteries + TNF Preview, Alligator Man - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/18
Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast
Key Takeaways
- Passing numbers are down significantly in the NFL through 2 weeks compared to previous seasons, especially passing touchdowns
- The elite tight ends like Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta are struggling and not producing as expected so far
- Sam Darnold has looked surprisingly good as the Vikings QB, but there are questions about if it's sustainable
- Rookie QB Bryce Young has struggled badly and is being benched for Andy Dalton
- Thursday Night Football features Patriots vs Jets - not an exciting matchup but Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are must-starts
- Key waiver wire pickups discussed include Carson Steele, Gus Edwards, and Derek Carr
Introduction
In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright discuss the biggest "unsolved mysteries" in fantasy football after two weeks of NFL action. They analyze concerning trends like the lack of passing production, struggles of elite tight ends, and surprising performances from players like Sam Darnold. The hosts also preview Thursday Night Football and provide waiver wire advice.
Topics Discussed
Passing Numbers Down Significantly (27:56)
The hosts discuss how passing numbers, especially touchdowns, are way down compared to previous seasons:
- From 2018-2022, there were over 100 passing TDs through 2 weeks each season
- This year there are only 66 passing TDs so far
- Possible reasons include:
- Defenses using more two-high safety looks
- Return of workhorse running backs
- Several rookie QBs starting
- This is impacting fantasy production for QBs and WRs
Andy notes that middling RBs like Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are outperforming middling WRs so far as a result of the reduced passing.
Struggles of Elite Tight Ends (51:31)
The hosts analyze why top tight ends like Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta are underperforming:
- Tight ends are less involved in offenses so far:
- Yards per route run is down
- Targets per route run is down
- Average depth of target is down
- Red zone usage for TEs has dropped from 27-30% in recent years to just 19% this season
- Only 3 TEs have a TD inside the 10-yard line so far
- For Travis Kelce specifically:
- Running fewer routes (27 per game vs 34-38 in recent years)
- Being asked to block more
- Only the first read on 12.5% of plays (way down from normal)
The hosts debate whether to hold or trade struggling TEs like Kelce. They suggest trying to acquire Mark Andrews or George Kittle if possible.
Sam Darnold's Surprising Success (37:54)
The hosts discuss Sam Darnold's strong start as Vikings QB:
- 268 yards and 2 TDs in Week 2 win over 49ers
- Only QB besides Derek Carr with 2+ passing TDs in both weeks
- Benefiting from having Justin Jefferson as a weapon
- Vikings are tied for 3rd in pass rate over expected
However, they debate if it's sustainable:
- Andy notes Darnold has had hot streaks before that didn't last
- Mike points out the Vikings defense looks good, which helps game scripts
- They agree another good game vs Houston would make them believers
"I love the coaching staff, and obviously having a weapon like Justin Jefferson is valuable. Sam Darnold has a great arm, he has the talent, but he still makes stupid decisions. And I do think that as soon as the cookie starts to crumble, I don't think it'll sustain the rest of the year." - Andy on Darnold
Bryce Young's Struggles and Benching (42:32)
The hosts discuss rookie QB Bryce Young's poor play and benching:
- Young has struggled badly, with about 30% of passes being uncatchable
- Panthers are benching him for Andy Dalton in Week 3
- Andy argues it's not just about the system, but Young's inability to make basic throws
- Jason notes the Panthers set Young up to fail:
- New system and players this offseason
- Only played one drive in preseason
- No weapons around him
They debate if more preseason reps would have helped Young and other young QBs adjust to the NFL.
"We gotta get these guys some preseason action. I know it - no one wants to see it, it's when a guy gets injured in a preseason game, a meaningless game, you lose your mind. We all do, but we're getting bad offenses." - Mike on lack of preseason reps
Thursday Night Football Preview: Patriots @ Jets (1:00:29)
The hosts preview the Thursday night matchup:
- Not an exciting game on paper - Patriots (1-1) @ Jets (1-1)
- Jets favored by 6.5, O/U of 38.5
- Key fantasy starts:
- Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB)
- Breece Hall (NYJ RB)
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR)
- Potential desperation TE play: Hunter Henry (NE)
- Expect a run-heavy, low-scoring game
They debate Garrett Wilson's outlook, noting he's been disappointing so far but has a good matchup.
"I think we have their crossing paths are just kind of taking away from each other." - Mike on Jets WRs Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard
Waiver Wire Pickups (16:15)
The hosts discuss key waiver wire additions this week:
- Carson Steele (KC RB) - Andy spent $28 FAAB
- Potential to take over lead role with Pacheco injured
- Chiefs coaches speaking highly of him
- Gus Edwards (BAL RB) - Andy spent $22 FAAB
- Consistent 15 carries per game and goal line work
- Safe floor as flex play
- Derek Carr (NO QB) - Mike spent $16 FAAB
- Saints offense looking good through 2 weeks
- Averaging 11.4 yards per attempt (1st in NFL)
They emphasize checking waivers for valuable players dropped by other managers.
Conclusion
The hosts wrapped up by emphasizing the importance of monitoring waiver wires on Wednesdays for valuable players dropped by other managers. They noted several key "unsolved mysteries" remain after two weeks, particularly around passing game production and elite tight end usage. The hosts will continue to monitor these trends and provide updated analysis as the season progresses. Next episode will feature their "starts of the week" for Week 3.